兴证国际：维持大唐新能源(01798)“增持”评级 Q3业绩承压但现金流大幅改善

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International maintains a "Buy" rating for Datang New Energy (01798), noting a slight increase in revenue for the first three quarters, but a decline in net profit primarily due to falling electricity prices and credit impairment provisions [1][3]. Performance Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, Datang New Energy achieved a revenue of 9.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.56% (or 323 million yuan), while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.59% (or 217 million yuan) [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 2.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.25% (or 105 million yuan), but a net loss of 35 million yuan compared to a profit of 105 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Revenue and Cash Flow Analysis - The company's wind and solar power generation increased by 7.40% and 42.22% year-on-year, respectively, with Q3 figures showing a 5.13% and 71.70% increase [2]. - The average revenue per kilowatt-hour in Q3 decreased by 0.04 yuan compared to the previous year, with a more significant decline than in the first half of the year [2]. - The company accelerated its cash flow due to faster national subsidy payments, with accounts receivable and notes receivable totaling 21.6 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 2.8 billion yuan from the end of the first half [2]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 7.890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.35%, while capital expenditures were 4.293 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.91% [2]. Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, acknowledging short-term performance pressures due to fluctuations in green electricity prices, but remains optimistic about the company's competitive advantages as a leading wind power enterprise and the cash flow flexibility from national subsidy payments [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.694 billion, 1.751 billion, and 1.911 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -9.7%, +2.7%, and +7.2%, respectively [3].