智通财经网·2025-11-21 09:31Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities has set a target price of HKD 52 for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and reiterated a "Buy" rating, citing strong Q3 performance with a 22.3% year-on-year revenue growth to CNY 113.1 billion and a record adjusted net profit of CNY 11.3 billion, up 80.9% year-on-year, driven by the high-end smartphone strategy and automotive business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi Group achieved revenue of CNY 113.1 billion, a 22.3% increase year-on-year. Revenue breakdown includes approximately CNY 46 billion from smartphones, CNY 27.6 billion from IoT, CNY 9.4 billion from internet services, and CNY 29 billion from automotive and AI businesses. The adjusted net profit reached CNY 11.3 billion, marking a historical high with an 80.9% year-on-year growth [2]. Business Aspects - Smartphones: Xiaomi continues to push for high-end market penetration, with global smartphone shipments reaching 43.3 million units, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The global market share stands at approximately 13.6%, ranking in the top three, while the domestic market share is about 16.7%, ranking second. High-end smartphone sales in mainland China accounted for 24.1% of total sales, with a market share of 18.9% in the CNY 4,000-6,000 price range. The Xiaomi 17 series, particularly the Pro and Pro Max models, accounted for over 80% of sales, indicating an optimized product structure [3]. - IoT: Xiaomi's AIoT platform has surpassed 1 billion connected devices, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth. The company ranks among the top five in global tablet shipments, second in TWS earphones, and first in wearable wristband devices. Monthly active users for the Mi Home app and Xiao Ai exceeded 110 million and 150 million, respectively. The launch of a smart home appliance factory in October 2025 marks a significant step in closing the industry loop from design to production [3]. Automotive and AI Innovation - Xiaomi's automotive and AI innovation business achieved its first quarterly profit, with vehicle deliveries reaching approximately 109,000 units, a historical high. The Xiaomi YU7 series ranked first in the mainland SUV sales chart in October 2025, and the operating profit for this segment was around CNY 700 million [4]. Profit Forecast and Rating - Guosheng Securities anticipates that in the short term, Xiaomi's smartphone and automotive sectors may face challenges due to subsidy adjustments and rising raw material costs. However, Xiaomi's strong market position and high-end strategy provide a competitive edge. The long-term outlook remains positive due to the "full ecosystem" strategy. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 470 billion, CNY 557 billion, and CNY 694 billion, with non-GAAP net profits of approximately CNY 44 billion, CNY 50.1 billion, and CNY 65 billion, respectively. The target price of HKD 52 is based on a 20x P/E for the consumer electronics segment and a 2.5x P/S for the automotive and AI innovation business, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [5].