少了1万亿美元，美国会预算办公室大幅下调特朗普关税收入预期

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its long-term fiscal surplus forecast down by $1 trillion due to the impact of tariff policies, raising concerns about U.S. borrowing needs [1][2] - The CBO estimates a total surplus of $3 trillion from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the previous estimate of $4 trillion [2] - The actual tariff rates have increased by approximately 14 percentage points compared to a year ago, with the average effective tariff rate for U.S. consumers reaching 16.8%, the highest since 1935 [2] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The CBO's adjustment reflects new data and the impact of recent tariff rate changes, which have reduced the estimated deficit effects [2] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the fiscal year ending September was $1.78 trillion, with a projected deficit of $1.82 trillion for 2024 [3] - Higher tariff revenues are expected to reduce the budget deficit by $2.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035, leading to savings of $500 billion in interest payments [3] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. government is considering eliminating tariffs on EU beef and other food products as part of recent trade agreements [4] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively seeking to increase exports to the EU and address trade imbalances, particularly in agricultural products [4] - The potential ruling by the Supreme Court regarding tariffs could significantly impact future fiscal revenues, with estimates of refunds ranging from $750 billion to $1 trillion [5] Group 3: Revenue from Tariffs - As of September 30, 2025, the U.S. federal government has generated nearly $195 billion in revenue from tariffs for the fiscal year [6]