U.S. Gasoline Inventories Sink To 12-Year Lows

Core Insights - Indian refiners' shift away from Russian oil has led to a significant increase in oil product prices, with ICE Brent-Gasoil crack spreads rising nearly 70% year-to-date, reaching a 21-month high above $32 per barrel [1] - U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest level since mid-July, which is expected to support product strength as the high-demand winter season approaches [2] - Despite the tightening distillates market, crude oil prices remain weak, influenced by bearish supply sentiment and geopolitical tensions, particularly Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are reported at 205.06 million barrels, 8.2 million barrels below the five-year average, marking the lowest level in 12 years [1] - U.S. distillate inventories stand at 110.91 million barrels, 9.3 million barrels below the five-year average, indicating a tightening market as winter demand increases [2] - The ICE gasoil-Brent crack has exceeded $34 per barrel, the highest level since September 2023, with the price differential remaining above $30 per barrel for 10 consecutive trading days [2] Geopolitical and Supply Dynamics - Recent Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have not significantly boosted oil prices, with Brent crude trading at $63.32 per barrel, showing minimal change from the previous week [3] - The port of Novorossiysk, a key export terminal with a capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, experienced a temporary suspension of loadings due to these attacks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the southern export route [3] - Analysts predict a slowdown in Russian crude exports following the upcoming sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, which could impact the overall supply dynamics in the market [4]