玻璃期货跌破千元大关，弱势何时方休？

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has experienced a significant downturn, with the main contract price falling below the critical threshold of 1000 yuan/ton for the first time in over four months, raising concerns about the market's bottom and future trends [1] Market Performance - The glass futures market has shown weak performance, with the main contract price dropping over 2% in early trading on November 21 [1] - After the National Day holiday, production companies initiated price cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, leading to a decline in the average transaction price of large glass sheets in the Shahe region from approximately 1237 yuan/ton in early October to around 1117 yuan/ton by the end of October [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some manufacturers starting cold repairs to adjust supply, the impact has been minimal, and the speed of supply adjustment is lagging behind the decline in demand [4] - Glass companies and midstream traders have significantly higher inventory levels compared to the same period last year, contributing to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [4] - The real estate sector's downturn has directly affected glass demand, with downstream processing companies facing insufficient orders, as indicated by a drop in order days to 9.9 days, a record low [8] Future Outlook - In the short term, the glass market lacks clear driving forces, and a weak trend is likely to continue; however, prices are at a low point, and expectations for further cold repairs may stimulate some mid-to-downstream demand [11] - The recovery of the glass industry in the medium to long term will depend on the extent of supply-side capacity adjustments and the recovery of demand from the real estate market [11] - Market participants should closely monitor changes in supply-side production cuts and real estate policy developments, as well as potential technical rebound risks [11]