欧元区11月PMI初值保持强劲 巩固欧央行暂停降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The private sector activity in the Eurozone remains strong in November, indicating potential acceleration in economic growth for the last months of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November SPGI Composite PMI preliminary value is 52.4, nearly unchanged from October's 52.5, and remains above the critical threshold of 50, with analysts expecting 52.5 [1]. - The services sector achieved its best performance in a year and a half, helping to offset unexpected weakness in the manufacturing sector [3]. - The Eurozone's November SPGI Services PMI preliminary value is 53.1, exceeding market expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.7, below the expected 50.2 [3]. Group 2: Country-Specific Performance - Germany continues to lead, although its economic expansion has slowed, with the November SPGI Composite PMI falling to 52.1, below expectations [3]. - France's economic performance exceeded expectations with a November SPGI Composite PMI of 49.9, although it remains below the growth threshold, impacted by long-standing budget issues [3]. - The private economy in France showed signs of stabilization in November after a slight decline in October, but the foundation for this stabilization remains unstable due to unresolved budget issues and ongoing political tensions [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The economic expansion in the Eurozone is expected to remain stable, with the services sector's significant share in the overall economy suggesting that growth in the fourth quarter should surpass that of the third quarter [5][6]. - Despite the manufacturing sector's drag on growth, the overall economic performance in Europe is better than expected, with projections indicating growth will remain close to this year's levels through 2026 due to new investments in infrastructure and military [6]. - The current economic conditions are not sufficient for the European Central Bank to further lower interest rates, which have already been halved from a peak of 4%, as inflation rates have rebounded close to the 2% target [6].