Core Points - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised down the long-term fiscal surplus expectation from the Trump administration's tariff policy by $1 trillion, raising concerns about U.S. borrowing needs [1][2] - The CBO estimates a total surplus of $3 trillion from 2025 to 2035, down from an earlier estimate of $4 trillion [2] - The CBO attributes about two-thirds of the downward revision to adjustments based on new data and notes that recent tariff rate adjustments have lowered the projected deficit impact [2] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The actual tariff rate is estimated to be approximately 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, compared to a previous estimate of 18% [2] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the fiscal year ending September was $1.78 trillion, with a projected deficit of $1.82 trillion for 2024 [2] - Higher tariff revenues are expected to cumulatively reduce the budget deficit by $2.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035, saving $500 billion in interest payments [2] Trade Policy Adjustments - The Trump administration is considering the removal of tariffs on certain EU food imports to alleviate consumer price concerns [3] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively seeking to increase exports to the EU and is focusing on modifying EU sanitary standards that restrict certain U.S. products [3] - The annual agricultural trade deficit for the U.S. is reported to be $23.6 billion, indicating a disadvantage for American farmers [3] Legal and Financial Implications - There are concerns that if the Supreme Court rules to refund tariffs, the amount could range from $750 billion to $1 trillion [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the federal government has generated nearly $195 billion in revenue from tariffs for the fiscal year [4]
少了1万亿美元 美国会预算办公室大幅下调特朗普关税收入预期
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-21 11:29