【专家看市】煤价何时进入反弹行情？

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a steady yet slightly strong trend, with prices rising slightly due to cooling temperatures, although there are risks of price stabilization in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main production areas are showing a stable yet slightly strong market trend, with coal prices experiencing a slight increase due to lower temperatures and a recovering trading atmosphere [1] - Downstream power plants have low inventory levels compared to last year, and with the peak winter coal demand approaching, there is a certain level of rigid demand and replenishment needs [2][3] - The Daqin and Tanghu lines maintain high transportation volumes, and the average daily coal input at the ports remains stable, supporting the market [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The cold wave has significantly increased coal consumption, leading power plants to enter a replenishment mode, which is expected to boost procurement quantities [2][3] - The number of vessels at the ports has increased, but adverse weather conditions have led to a higher coal stockpile at certain ports, creating a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - The overall market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where prices remain firm but demand is weak, making transactions difficult [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain active as power plants seek to increase their coal inventories in anticipation of higher winter demand, with potential upward pressure on coal prices [3][5] - The supply side is likely to remain tight due to ongoing safety inspections and production capacity restrictions, which may lead to structural shortages in the market [4] - If the ports can accelerate inventory reduction, high-quality coal may become scarce again, potentially leading to a new upward trend in coal prices [5]