一天内近40万人爆仓 比特币崩了！近一个半月已跌超1/3，专家：还要继续跌

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping from over $125,000 to around $82,000, marking a 35% decrease in just a month and a half [1]. Price Movements - Bitcoin's price fell below $82,000, reaching a low of $81,111, the lowest since April 7, with a 24-hour drop of up to $11,000 before slightly recovering to $83,973, down over 9% [1]. - Other cryptocurrencies also faced declines: Ethereum down 10.8%, SOL down 11.7%, XRP down 10.5%, Dogecoin down 11.6%, and ADA down 13.3% [2]. Market Capitalization and Liquidations - Market capitalizations for major cryptocurrencies show significant losses, with Ethereum at $32.7 billion (-12.8%), SOL at $6.47 billion (-12.4%), and XRP at $3.05 billion (-14.9%) [3]. - In the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market saw liquidations totaling $1.914 billion, affecting 392,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $1.78 billion and short positions for $130 million [5]. Economic Factors - Bitcoin has erased all its gains for the year, with a cumulative decline of over 10%, indicating a potential annual drop for the first time since 2022 [7]. - Analysts attribute the downturn to reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over an AI bubble, which pose significant challenges for cryptocurrencies and risk assets [7]. - Recent U.S. labor statistics showed unexpected job growth, leading to diminished expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut estimated at 42% [7]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price is currently fragile, with previous bullish drivers like interest rate cuts failing to sustain upward momentum [10]. - Predictions indicate that Bitcoin could drop to $75,000 by year-end, with a 50% chance of falling below $90,000, while the likelihood of surpassing $100,000 by 2025 is only 30% [11]. - The inherent conflict in Bitcoin's value proposition—between being a speculative asset and a stable currency—poses risks for investors, as its high valuation relies on speculative expectations that may not be sustainable [11].