黄金，陷入拉锯？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced fluctuations, with recent data indicating a decline in both international and domestic gold prices, influenced by various market factors [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of November 21, 2023, the London spot gold price was reported at $4056.41 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 0.5%, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's price for Au99.99 was 922.22 yuan per gram, down about 0.8% [1]. - Several domestic gold jewelry brands have adjusted their prices, with variations noted among them. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price was 1295 yuan per gram, down 12 yuan from the previous day, while Lao Miao's price was 1298 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report for October indicated that the Chinese gold market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with overall positive trends. The first half of October saw gold prices reach new highs due to ETF buying and increased risk, while the latter half saw a pullback due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking [7]. - In October, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold outflow reached 124 tons, an increase of 6 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year rise of 17 tons, indicating heightened investment interest in gold [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to experience volatility, with a potential for a prolonged period of fluctuation until market conditions stabilize. Factors such as the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are expected to exert pressure on gold prices in the short term [8]. - The recent changes in China's value-added tax policy may impact domestic gold jewelry demand, as consumers will bear additional tax burdens. However, the long-term trend of rising gold prices may reduce price sensitivity among consumers [9].