Asia Morning Briefing: Market Turns Defensive as Bitcoin Loses Its Bid

Market Overview - Bitcoin is experiencing a weaker market structure with diminished demand and defensive positioning, leading to a slip in prices [1] - The core demand wave for Bitcoin has passed, with ETF accumulation slowing and Treasury-company buying evaporating, indicating limited upside potential [2] - Polymarket traders are predicting a move towards $85,000 for Bitcoin, with minimal expectations for upward movement [3] Investor Sentiment - Short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest rate since the FTX period, with negative ETF flows and a risk-off sentiment in derivatives markets [3] - The Active Investor cost basis is near $88,600, which is a critical test for the market; a sustained move below this level could indicate bearish momentum [4] Support Levels - The next support level for Bitcoin is around $82,000, which could signal a transition to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023 if breached [4] - The coming weeks will determine if buyers can regain control or if the downturn will become more entrenched [5] Current Market Prices - Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly dipping below $90,000, while Ether is at approximately $3,038, reflecting a defensive tone in the market [6] - Gold is trading near $4,067, indicating risk aversion across markets [6] Regional Market Movements - The Nikkei 225 rose by 3.7% due to strong earnings from Nvidia, boosting chip stocks in the Asia-Pacific markets [7]