Boston Fed President Collins: A mildly restrictive policy is very appropriate right now

Economic Outlook - The job market shows mixed signals with a three-month average job growth of about 62,000, primarily concentrated in healthcare and leisure sectors, while the unemployment rate has ticked up due to higher labor force participation [2][7][12] - Economic activity remains relatively resilient, with robust demand from both consumers and firms, although the labor market has softened [7][19] - Inflation remains elevated, largely due to tariffs, and is expected to continue before a benign disinflation scenario emerges [8][10] Federal Reserve Policy - The current Fed policy is viewed as mildly to moderately restrictive, which is deemed appropriate to ensure a return to disinflation as tariffs are absorbed [9][10][23] - There is hesitancy to cut rates further, especially after two cuts earlier in the year, as resilient demand could exert upward pressure on prices [11][14] - The Fed is considering a range of economic scenarios, acknowledging the complexity of addressing disparate economic conditions, including a K-shaped recovery where low-income individuals struggle while wealthier segments thrive [17][18] Global Economic Landscape - The theme of the upcoming economic conference focuses on the US economy amidst a changing global landscape, highlighting increases in global risk and uncertainty, as well as potential fragmentation in trade and capital flows [25][27] - The conference will address the implications of these changes for multinational firms, tariffs, and the overall economic environment [26][28]