【财经分析】PMI数据描绘欧元区稳定增长前景 欧洲央行2026年可能维持利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's business activity shows steady growth in November, indicating economic resilience, with improved business confidence suggesting continued momentum and a balanced inflation outlook, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to stabilize interest rates by 2026 [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November composite PMI slightly decreased from October's two-year high of 52.5 to 52.4, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing economic expansion [2]. - The services sector's PMI rose to 53.1 in November, the fastest growth in 18 months, supported by robust new orders, while employment growth was cautious [2]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating a return to contraction, with new orders and employment both declining, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the sector [2]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's November composite PMI dropped to 52.1, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.4, reflecting a significant decline in new orders, particularly in exports [3]. - France's November composite PMI improved to 49.9, nearing stability after over a year of decline, with services PMI rising to 50.8, indicating a slight recovery in business activity [4]. ECB Outlook - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates through December and into next year, supported by resilient economic growth and improved business confidence [6][7]. - ECB officials have indicated that current interest rates are appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and economic performance [8].