比特币一个半月跌逾40000美元 “持币大户”Strategy股价6个月跌56% 小摩警告：该股恐遭MSCI剔除 或引发28亿美元资金外流

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $82,000 and reaching a low of $81,330, marking the lowest point since April 7, with a daily decline exceeding 9% [1] - Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, saw its stock price drop nearly 5% in pre-market trading, down 67% since its historical high in November 2024, and over 56% in the past six months [2] Group 1: Market Impact and Concerns - JPMorgan issued a warning that Strategy may be removed from the MSCI index, which could trigger a potential outflow of up to $2.8 billion [4][5] - The discussion about Strategy's potential removal from the MSCI index stems from a recent consultation document by MSCI, which evaluates companies primarily holding a single volatile asset [5][6] - If MSCI decides to exclude Strategy, passive funds linked to these indices would be forced to adjust their positions, leading to significant structural outflows [6] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - Strategy's business model, initiated in 2020, involved converting cash reserves into Bitcoin and issuing debt to acquire more Bitcoin, creating a unique "Bitcoin proxy model" [7] - The recent decline in Bitcoin prices has weakened Strategy's growth model, with Bitcoin dropping from over $125,000 to around $81,000 in just over a month, a decline of 35% [7] - The implied net asset value (mNAV) of Strategy has fallen close to 1, indicating that the company's stock price is nearly equivalent to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, limiting its ability to issue high-priced shares for further acquisitions [8] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Despite the challenges, some analysts maintain a positive outlook on Strategy, with Bernstein's chief analyst reiterating a "buy" rating and a target price of $600, suggesting a potential upside of 238% from current levels [9] - Concerns regarding forced Bitcoin sales are considered exaggerated, as Strategy still possesses ample liquidity and flexibility in long-term debt [10] - Recent significant Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, amounting to $835.6 million, indicate ongoing institutional demand for Bitcoin, suggesting that if prices stabilize, Strategy's stock could present an attractive entry point [10]