Long-Term Holders Aren’t Buying the Solana Price Reversal Story — Here’s Why

Core Insights - Solana's price has increased by approximately 4.2% today, but the overall trend remains weak, with a nearly 22% decline over the past month, indicating a lack of support from long-term holders for a price rebound [1] Long-Term Holder Behavior - The 1–2 year holder group of Solana has been reducing their supply throughout the month, with their share dropping from 19.28% on October 20 to 17.24% by November 19 [2] - This significant reduction in supply from long-term holders, who typically maintain stability during market corrections, suggests they do not perceive the recent price increase as a genuine trend reversal [3][4] Technical Analysis - A bearish crossover is imminent as the 100-day exponential moving average approaches crossing below the 200-day EMA, a pattern that often indicates a weakening trend [5] - The presence of strong supply clusters between $140 and $142 poses additional resistance, with approximately 16.3 million SOL in the first zone and around 16.9 million SOL in the second zone [7] - For Solana to sustain its recent price bounce, it must achieve a daily close above $143; failure to do so may lead to a loss of momentum due to ongoing supply pressure and a weakening EMA structure [8]