Treasury Yields Snapshot: November 21, 2025

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of November 21, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.51% and the 30-year note at 4.71% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown multiple instances of turning negative before rising again, particularly noted before the 2009 recession [3][5] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern, with a negative spread observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences mortgage rates, with the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reported at 6.26%, one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]