Sugar Prices Finish Little Changed Amid Consolidation

Core Insights - Sugar prices remained stable with March NY world sugar 11 closing unchanged and March London ICE white sugar 5 increasing by 0.10 (+0.02%) [1] - Recent price movements were influenced by India's food ministry considering raising ethanol prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] Market Dynamics - Sugar prices have been supported by India's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 million MT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than earlier estimates of 2 million MT [3] - The outlook for global sugar supplies has negatively impacted prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 million MT, indicating a bearish trend for prices [6] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 16.4% year-on-year in the second half of October, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through October rose by 1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 million MT, contributing to the overall increase in global sugar production [6]