Nat-Gas Prices Decline as US Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a decline due to warmer weather forecasts in the US, which may reduce heating demand [1] - Weekly natural gas storage reported a larger decline than expected, indicating potential supply constraints [2][4] - Increased US natural gas production is exerting downward pressure on prices, with production levels near record highs [3] Price Movements - December Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.076 (-1.67%) [1] - Initial price increase was observed before settling lower due to weather forecasts [1] Storage and Supply - EIA reported a decline of -14 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ended November 14, exceeding expectations of -12 bcf [2][4] - Current inventories are down -0.6% year-on-year but are +3.8% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply [4] Production and Demand - EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US natural gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day [3] - Active US natural gas rigs are at a two-year high, contributing to increased production [3] - Lower-48 state gas production was reported at 110.1 bcf/day (+7.6% year-on-year) [3] - Electricity output in the US rose by +5.33% year-on-year, which may support gas prices [3] European Context - As of November 18, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 90% [4]