资管一线｜专访瑞士百达陈东：长线外资仍有较大空间配置中国资产

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for foreign capital reassessing Chinese assets, driven by the erosion of dollar credit and the valuation advantages of Chinese tech stocks [1][5]. - Foreign capital inflow into Chinese stocks reached its highest level in four years, with a total of $50.6 billion from January to October 2023, significantly higher than the $11.4 billion in 2024 [5]. - The Chinese stock market's performance has been bolstered by the AI boom, particularly due to breakthroughs in large models, leading to a shift in foreign investors' perceptions of Chinese tech [5][6]. Group 2 - The dollar is facing long-term downward pressure due to rising domestic policy uncertainty and high fiscal deficits in the U.S., which are impacting its global standing [2][3]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yields are expected to stabilize around 4% to 5%, challenging the traditional view of U.S. bonds as risk-free assets [3]. - The overall valuation of U.S. stocks is at a global high, and any reduction in foreign capital inflow due to declining dollar credit could compress these valuations [3][4]. Group 3 - The financial sector is expected to present medium to long-term investment opportunities, with banks showing signs of improved profitability and stable dividend yields above 5% [7]. - The MSCI China Index is projected to see earnings growth exceeding 10% in 2026, indicating potential for upward movement driven by earnings rather than just valuation [6][7]. - The Chinese stock market's overall valuation has returned to the average level of the past 15 years, remaining relatively reasonable compared to other emerging markets [6][7].