“抛售日本”交易浮现 股债汇“三杀” 21万亿日元经济刺激计划恐酿新风暴

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis in Q3 2025, marking a return to negative growth after six consecutive quarters of recovery [1][2] - The decline in exports, particularly in the automotive sector due to increased U.S. tariffs, contributed to this downturn, with exports falling for the first time in six quarters [2][3] - Domestic demand also weakened, with private residential investment plummeting by 9.4%, erasing much of the recovery achieved post-pandemic [2][3] Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the economic data, leading to a "sell Japan" trend, with the 30-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a record high of 3.35% to 3.38% [5][6] - The yen depreciated significantly, nearing the intervention threshold of 160 yen per dollar, while the Nikkei 225 index erased all gains since the new Prime Minister's tenure began [5][6] Tourism Impact - The tourism sector faced severe challenges, with over 540,000 flight cancellations from China to Japan, leading to potential losses of up to 1 trillion yen [11][12] - The decline in Chinese tourists is expected to reduce Japan's tourism revenue by approximately 1.79 trillion yen, significantly impacting GDP growth [12] Government Response - In response to the economic pressures, the Japanese government announced a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic, aimed at improving living standards rather than significantly boosting economic growth [13][14] - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation, with potential parallels drawn to the UK's "Truss crisis" in 2022 [16][19]