Benzinga·2025-11-22 05:24Core Viewpoint - A potential policy reversal on U.S. chip exports to China could significantly enhance Nvidia's outlook, despite a recent decline in its share price [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The Trump administration is reportedly considering allowing Nvidia to resume sales of its high-end H200 AI chips to China, which would represent a major shift for the company [2]. - Nvidia's CEO noted that the company's market share in China fell from 95% to zero due to previous export bans, indicating the critical nature of this policy change [3]. - Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management estimates that resuming H200 shipments could increase Wall Street's expected revenue growth for Nvidia from 49% to approximately 72% [3]. Group 2: Revenue Projections - Munster highlighted that Nvidia could potentially generate up to $50 billion in revenue from China by 2025 if compliant chips are utilized, which would significantly boost overall revenue expectations [4]. - Current revenue expectations for Nvidia are around $330 billion, and incorporating potential Chinese revenue could elevate growth projections to the low-70% range [4]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Despite a 70% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue to $57 billion, Nvidia's shares fell by 0.97% on Friday and are down over 13% in November [7]. - Nvidia's net income reached $31.8 billion, surpassing the combined quarterly revenue of Intel and AMD by nearly $9 billion, showcasing its dominant market position [9]. - Since Q1 2023, Nvidia's profit has surged by 2,170%, while revenue has increased by 700%, contrasting sharply with Intel's 7% sales growth and AMD's 70% increase during the same period [9].