Core Insights - The dual credit policy for passenger vehicles has been revised to enhance its effectiveness in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction in China's automotive industry, facilitating the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector [1][5][11] Group 1: Policy Changes - The revised dual credit policy mandates that the proportion of new energy vehicle credits will be 48% in 2026 and 58% in 2027 [5][11] - The adjustment in new energy credits is more significant, with a reduction of 45%-50% for 2026-2027, compared to the previous adjustments of 30%-40% [4][11] Group 2: Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to experience slower growth in the future, while the dual credit requirements will increase rapidly, leading to a higher number of non-compliant companies [3][11] - Data from 2021 to 2024 indicates a significant increase in new energy vehicle penetration, with a projected gap of 20 percentage points by 2024 and 15 percentage points by October 2025 [2] Group 3: Technological Implications - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) maintain a substantial advantage in credit accumulation, with mainstream pure EVs scoring more than double that of plug-in hybrids [4][11] - The policy adjustments favor pure electric vehicles, reinforcing their dominant position in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Impact - The overall accumulation of new energy credits from 2022 to 2024 is substantial, with a credit pool system established, alleviating short-term pressure on most companies, while smaller firms may face increasing challenges [7] - The policy provides leniency for small-scale manufacturers and importers, particularly for those producing fewer than 2,000 vehicles annually, allowing for a more gradual transition to compliance [10]
崔东树：双积分办法考核标准渐趋严格 有望促进车企技术积累及新能源转型
智通财经网·2025-11-22 08:59