强预期，弱现实？下周钢价有机会？

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is weak, with a lack of clear drivers in the spot market, but there are optimistic expectations for upcoming policies [1] - Internationally, stock markets have declined, and unexpected increases in non-farm payroll data have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts in December, although the likelihood of a rate cut is still increasing [1][2] - Domestic events are relatively quiet, but there is a growing call for policies to counteract excessive competition, leading to increased market speculation towards the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The supply side of coking coal is weakening due to a slowdown in strong expectations, with coking coal prices experiencing a continuous decline since late October [1][2] - Despite improved profits for independent coking plants, there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery, leading to insufficient positive factors for the coking coal demand side [1][2] Group 3 - Steel production has seen a slight increase as some steel mills have lifted production restrictions, but overall supply pressure remains manageable due to low profit levels [4] - Seasonal demand weakness is impacting steel inventory reduction, with limited upward momentum in demand, leading to a stable but low trading range [5] - Steel mills are under pressure as profitability drops below 37%, but there are signs of price stabilization, indicating limited downside potential [5]