车百会张永伟：“缺芯”之后，“少魂”与“断链”成汽车新挑战

Core Insights - China's role in the global automotive supply chain is becoming increasingly prominent, particularly in key areas such as power batteries, where Chinese companies hold nearly 70% of the global market share for battery installations [2] - By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan (around 2030), China's automotive production and sales are expected to reach 40 million units, with over 12 million units potentially produced or sold overseas, accounting for approximately 45% of global automotive production [2] Group 1: Supply Chain Advantages - Chinese enterprises have transitioned from relying on external technology inputs to exporting intelligent outcomes, marking a significant shift in the automotive industry [2] - The "Chinese content" in global automotive parts is expected to rise, with its value being comparable to that of complete vehicle exports [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The supply chain faces significant challenges, particularly in power batteries, chips, and software, which are identified as the three focal points for future competition [3] - The concentration of upstream resources (like lithium, cobalt, and nickel) and rapid technological iterations (such as the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization) pose risks to existing production capacities [3] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The automotive supply chain companies are encouraged to adopt a "dual factory" model, where the Chinese headquarters acts as the "brain factory" for remote control, while overseas factories serve as "hands factories" for standardized production [4] - A shift from "just-in-time" production to a new system that balances safety, stability, efficiency, and controllability is recommended for vehicle manufacturers [4] - Component manufacturers should focus on "quick response and near supply" strategies and continuous technological iteration to break out of competitive stagnation [4] Group 4: Structural Issues - The current core contradiction in the supply chain is the "new supply-demand contradiction," where vehicle manufacturers struggle to find reliable new components, while companies with new technologies face difficulties in entering the market [4] - Establishing a supply-demand matching platform is suggested to facilitate collaboration from the R&D stage to address this structural challenge [4]