Puzzled — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate

Core Insights - Bitcoin has shown a negative year-to-date performance, leading to skepticism about its investment potential [4] - The volatility of Bitcoin undermines its argument as a stable alternative currency, with significant price drops observed [6] - The correlation between Bitcoin and equity markets is high, challenging its role as a portfolio hedge [10][11] - The argument for Bitcoin's scarcity is weakened by its divisibility and the emergence of competing cryptocurrencies [17] - Frequent changes in the investment rationale for Bitcoin suggest instability in its investment thesis [18] Investment Performance - Bitcoin has experienced six collapses of 70% or greater over the past twelve years, indicating high volatility [6] - The drop from Bitcoin's October high is over 25%, reflecting its unstable nature [6] Market Correlation - Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 has been exceptionally high over the past decade, questioning its effectiveness as a hedge [10][11] Volatility Comparison - The Purpose Bitcoin ETF has shown extraordinary volatility compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, highlighting the risks associated with Bitcoin investments [13][15] Scarcity Argument - The argument for Bitcoin's scarcity is challenged by its infinitely divisible nature and the presence of numerous competing cryptocurrencies [17]