特朗普，关税突发！美联储官员最新表态，12月降息概率几乎翻倍

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan to restore tariffs amid potential Supreme Court challenges to a key tariff authorization [1][2] - If the court rules against the administration, the U.S. government may have to refund over $88 billion in tariffs already collected [2] - The U.S. has recently adjusted tariffs on Brazilian goods, eliminating a 40% additional tariff on certain products while approximately 22% of exports to the U.S. remain affected [2][3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Boston Fed President Collins indicated that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has nearly doubled, with market expectations rising to about 70% [7] - The market reacted positively to dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock indices [7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been declining, with WTI and Brent crude prices dropping over 3.15% and 2.84% respectively in the past week [11] - Analysts attribute the weak oil market to geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic sentiment, and fundamental oversupply concerns [11][12] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is currently a major support factor for oil prices, but any progress in peace talks could lead to a significant drop in geopolitical risk and a potential return of Russian oil to the market [11][12][13] Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oil market is expected to face significant inventory pressure by late 2025 to early 2026, with EIA and IEA projecting substantial stock builds [12] - Recent increases in OPEC+ oil exports have heightened concerns about oversupply, with forecasts indicating a potential surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026 [12][13] - The rising floating storage and in-transit oil volumes are expected to exert further pressure on land-based inventories and oil prices [13]