What Lowe’s and Walmart Just Told Us About Q1 Freight — Part 2 of the Retail Freight Outlook

Core Insights - Home Depot's earnings indicate that while consumer spending is stable, it is not as robust as before, with delays in big home projects and soft DIY activity [1] - Lowe's and Walmart's recent earnings reports confirm Home Depot's observations, providing clarity for small carriers reliant on freight cycles [2] Group 1: Home Depot and Lowe's Insights - Home Depot reported that consumers are not collapsing but are also not spending as freely, leading to delays in large home projects and a steady inventory level [1] - Lowe's reported steady but weak sales, with customers focusing on basic purchases and postponing significant remodels and upgrades [3] - Lowe's noted that their Pro customer base, which typically drives construction-related freight, is spending but not scaling up or taking on larger jobs, indicating a cautious approach [4][5] Group 2: Freight and Construction Indicators - The construction sector is a leading indicator for freight demand, and Lowe's suggests that contractors are currently uncertain, leading to minimal stockpiling [5] - Truckers can expect a slower January and February for home-related freight, as the volume of materials ordered is not expected to surge early in the spring [6] - Balanced inventory levels across retailers suggest limited early-year restocking, which typically keeps truckload demand flat heading into Q1 [7] Group 3: Walmart's Consumer Insights - Walmart's Q3 earnings reveal that while consumers are still spending, they are doing so with caution, particularly in discretionary categories [7] - Strong performance was noted in grocery and everyday essentials, while discretionary items like electronics and general merchandise showed softness [8]