Colder US Weather Forecasts Lift Nat-Gas Prices

Core Insights - Natural gas prices increased by 2.48% on Friday, reaching a one-week high due to forecasts of colder weather in the US, which is expected to boost heating demand [1] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories, which supported price increases [2][6] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - As of Friday, US dry gas production was 111.1 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.9%, while gas demand was 82.8 bcf/day, down 9.2% year-over-year [4] Storage and Supply - The EIA reported a decrease of 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending November 14, which was more than the expected decline of 12 bcf and significantly below the five-year average increase of 12 bcf for the same period [2][6] - As of November 18, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 90% [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase of 5.33% in US electricity output for the week ending November 15, totaling 75,586 GWh, which may support natural gas demand for electricity generation [5]