Why I Still Wouldn't Buy Palantir Stock -- Even After Its Recent Sell-Off

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has experienced a significant pullback in its stock price, which raises questions about its high valuation in a competitive AI software market [1][2][9] Company Performance - Palantir's third-quarter revenue grew 63% year over year to $1.18 billion, with U.S. revenue increasing by 77% and U.S. commercial revenue surging 121% [3] - Management has raised its fourth-quarter revenue growth expectation to about 61% year over year and lifted its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to approximately 53% growth, alongside strong adjusted free cash flow projections of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion [4][10] Competitive Landscape - The AI software market is crowded, with competitors like Snowflake and Databricks aggressively investing in AI, and large cloud providers like Microsoft and Amazon having structural advantages [6][7] - Palantir remains a smaller player with fewer resources and a significant portion of its revenue still tied to government contracts, which can be unpredictable [8] Valuation Concerns - Despite strong growth and profitability, Palantir's valuation is considered extremely high, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 165, which may not provide a margin of safety if AI spending normalizes [9][11] - The stock's current price reflects expectations of exceptional growth and strong economics, making it potentially risky for investors [12]