以史为鉴，本轮科技牛调整到哪了？高成长+高回撤+高ROE的优质科技股曝光

Core Viewpoint - The current adjustment in the technology stock market has raised concerns among investors regarding its duration and potential depth, with historical adjustments in previous bull markets serving as a reference point [1][2]. Historical Analysis - The "Internet Bull Market" saw a significant adjustment in the ChiNext Index from February 25 to May 19, 2014, with a maximum decline of 22.95% over 57 trading days [3]. - During the "Track Bull Market," there were three major adjustments in the ChiNext Index: the first from April 8 to June 10, 2019, with a decline exceeding 21%; the second from February 26 to March 23, 2020, with a nearly 21% drop; and the third from February to March 2021, with a decline over 25% [3]. - The current adjustment period for the ChiNext Index has lasted 17 trading days with a decline of 12.36%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index has adjusted for 31 trading days with a decline of 19.28% [5]. Market Indicators - Compared to previous adjustments, the current adjustment in major technology stock indices appears "slightly insufficient" in terms of magnitude and duration, although the Sci-Tech 50 Index's adjustment is nearing historical volatility levels [6]. - Short-term indicators suggest that the technology sector may not have fully adjusted, with low turnover rates and significant inflows in financing since August 27 [6]. - Key indicators for determining the bottom of the technology sector include positive policy and industry catalysts, as well as sufficient adjustments in sentiment and funding metrics [6]. Future Outlook - The "Double Innovation" sector, which has been a leader in the current market, still shows potential for growth, with strong performance from quality stocks and significant domestic substitution opportunities [7]. - Forecasts for the Sci-Tech 50 Index indicate revenue growth rates of 7.66%, 18.71%, and 17.49% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 45.79%, 80.93%, and 32.08% respectively [7]. - The ChiNext Index is projected to have revenue growth rates of 24.54%, 18.50%, and 16.51% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 36.24%, 30.94%, and 22.48% [8]. Investment Opportunities - A list of 21 high-quality technology stocks has been identified, all of which have a net profit growth forecast exceeding 30% for the next two years and have seen price corrections of over 20% from their yearly highs [9]. - These stocks generally have high research and development expenditures, with several companies projected to spend over 1 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. - The top-performing stock in terms of net asset return is Shenghong Technology, with an average return of nearly 27% in the first three quarters of the year [9].