明天A股面临关键考验 支撑A股市场走“慢牛”的根本逻辑并没有变

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading week saw a significant decline in the A-share market, with only 520 stocks rising, indicating a rare occurrence and potential market instability ahead [1][3]. Market Performance - During the week of November 17 to 21, the A-share market experienced continuous adjustments, culminating in a notable drop on Friday [3]. - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, fell below the 60-day moving average, with the Wind All A Index touching the 20-week moving average for the first time since late June [4]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Despite the recent downturn, there remains a prevailing expectation for market recovery in the upcoming week, as historical patterns suggest quick rebounds following significant declines [5]. - The average stock price in the All A market closed at 24.72 yuan, closely mirroring the closing price of 24.74 yuan on September 4, indicating a potential support level [5]. Sector Analysis - Huazhang Securities reports that the current adjustment phase is nearing historical comparability, with limited further downside expected. Growth technology is anticipated to be the strongest sector in the next upward trend [7]. - Historical data suggests that growth styles typically adjust for 1-2 months with a decline of 15%-20%, while the current maximum adjustment for growth styles is 10.7% over one month [7]. External Influences - The recent market decline is attributed to weakness in global markets, particularly concerns over interest rate cuts and the AI bubble. Despite strong earnings reports, Nvidia's stock fell, reflecting broader market fears [8]. - Following comments from New York Fed President Williams, expectations for a December interest rate cut surged to approximately 70%, nearly doubling from the previous day [8]. Upcoming Events - On November 24, the IPO of domestic GPU company Moore Threads will take place, with an issue price set at 114.28 yuan per share [12]. - The MSCI index adjustments will take effect on November 24, with 17 new A-shares added and 16 removed, impacting market dynamics [13].