视频丨韧性、创新、稳定、开放 国内外机构看好中国经济增长前景

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions predict that China's economy will continue to show steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [1][3][4] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions generally forecast that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 due to policy support [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth driven by appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [3] - UBS expects more precise policy support to enhance economic resilience [3] Group 2: Structural and Policy Support - The chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities highlights significant growth potential and quality upgrade space in China's economy due to its vast market and strong industrial system [4] - UBS emphasizes targeted support measures such as energy cost subsidies for businesses and consumer incentives [6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, citing the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a confidence booster for advanced manufacturing competitiveness [6] Group 3: Trade and Domestic Demand - The dual drivers of foreign trade and domestic demand are crucial for high-quality economic growth, with exports remaining a core support force [7] - Analysts from CITIC Securities predict stronger overall exports in 2026 compared to 2025, with a focus on mid-to-high-end manufacturing competitiveness [9] - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with consumer and livelihood policies expected to play a key role in expanding domestic demand [9] Group 4: Innovation and Stability - Analysts identify "innovation" as a key theme for the economy in 2026, with a shift from traditional factor-driven growth to technology-driven growth [14] - The IMF representative notes that expanding consumption is a priority for the government, contributing to high-quality growth [11] - UBS economists highlight the stability of domestic policies as a solid foundation for innovation and a crucial guarantee for steady economic progress [18][20] Group 5: Open and Sustainable Development - The concept of institutional openness in finance, particularly in RMB internationalization and capital market openness, is seen as a positive factor for economic vitality [22] - The emphasis on green finance and support for high-tech industries is expected to enhance the overall economic landscape [22]