反弹难掩颓势 比特币创Terra崩盘后最大月跌幅 “极度恐慌”暗示跌势未止？

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin recently rebounding to over $86,000 but still facing its worst month since the 2022 Terra collapse [1] - The recent drop in Bitcoin's value, which fell to around $80,500, has resulted in a market capitalization loss of approximately $500 billion, marking a critical stress test for the market [1] - Investors are withdrawing billions from 12 Bitcoin-related ETFs, raising concerns about the value of companies that primarily hold digital assets [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in October was triggered by a flash crash on October 10, which saw $19 billion in cryptocurrency positions liquidated, causing Bitcoin to plummet from its recent high of $126,251 [3] - Analysts suggest that the majority of the market's decline is linked to this flash crash, indicating that large participants may have been forced to sell due to the impact on their balance sheets [3] - The liquidity issues in the market remain unresolved, with market makers unable to support prices, leading to continued low liquidity in the cryptocurrency market [3] Group 2: Institutional Investor Behavior - Unlike previous downturns, ETFs have emerged as a new factor in this crisis, with significant withdrawals from Bitcoin-related funds by institutional investors, including Harvard's endowment and various hedge funds [3][4] - The trend of digital asset "treasury companies," which are publicly listed firms holding cryptocurrencies, is facing severe capital outflows, raising questions about their structural value [4][5] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has plummeted, with the Fear and Greed Index scoring just 11, indicating extreme fear among investors [5] - The lack of structural demand during significant pullbacks has led to a loss of natural buyers in the market, exacerbating the downturn [5] - Despite the current decline, the drop in Bitcoin's price is less severe than the 75% decline seen during the 2021-2022 bear market, suggesting potential for deeper pain ahead [5]