兴业证券：中国资产有望迎来修复

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese assets are expected to recover due to their adjusted cost-effectiveness amidst global market fluctuations and the release of overseas risks [1][5][8] - The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman have led to a significant increase in the market's expectations for a rate cut in December, rising from 30% to 71%, which is easing the pressure on global risk appetite [2][5] - The concerns regarding the "AI bubble" are likely to ease as liquidity expectations improve and major tech companies continue to invest in AI applications, which are translating into actual productivity [5][8] Group 2 - The current market conditions indicate that the Hong Kong stock market, which has experienced earlier and deeper declines, presents a favorable entry point due to its high short-selling ratio and the valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index returning to levels seen during "equal tariffs" [1][6][8] - Historical data shows that when the entire A-share market falls below the 60-day moving average, the subsequent recovery is often limited, suggesting that the market is likely to rebound after a short-term digestion period [5][6] - The independent logic supporting the recovery of Chinese assets includes enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic drivers, clear policy direction, and stable economic fundamentals, which are not affected by external disturbances [8][9] Group 3 - The focus for the year-end market layout should be on sectors with high growth expectations for the next year, particularly those that have adjusted to cost-effectiveness due to overseas shocks [9][10] - Key sectors identified for potential growth include AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution" sectors, and structural recovery in domestic demand [9][10][11] - For technology growth sectors, opportunities are seen in narrative shifts and internal "high-cut-low" strategies, particularly in AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [14][18]