智通财经网·2025-11-23 09:41Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the US stock market indicates a slight downward trend until the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10-11, with a potential rebound expected in the latter half of December due to anticipated changes in monetary policy and tax cuts starting January 1 [1][9]. Market Trends - The US stock market experienced a decline, particularly in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 2.4% and 4.8% respectively [2]. - Despite the downturn, the drop is attributed more to macroeconomic factors rather than panic selling related to an "AI bubble" [2]. Employment Data and Monetary Policy - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations of 51,000, which has raised tightening expectations for monetary policy [3]. - Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have further fueled market expectations for a tightening of monetary policy, with indications that the Fed may maintain current interest rates in December [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, while the broader U6 unemployment rate decreased slightly to 8.0% [4]. - The labor market shows signs of marginal weakening, with potential future downward revisions of employment data for July and August [4]. AI Market Dynamics - The narrative of an "AI bubble" bursting is unlikely to manifest in the short term, as demand continues to grow amid competitive pressures and technological advancements [5][6]. - The commercial landscape for AI is evolving, with significant investments from major tech companies expected to drive growth in the sector [5]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the US stock market have been revised upward, particularly in the information technology and healthcare sectors [7][8]. - The upward revisions in revenue and earnings growth are occurring despite a decline in stock prices, indicating a contraction in valuation multiples rather than a deterioration in earnings expectations [8]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the economic environment, including technology, manufacturing, military, healthcare, and financial services [1][9].