【美股周评】12月降息与否成悬念，上周美股整体承压

Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced significant pressure last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, S&P 500 down 1.95%, and Nasdaq down 2.74% [1] - The S&P and Nasdaq indices fell approximately 5.5% and 8.5% from recent peaks, respectively, indicating bearish short-term signals [1] - Implied volatility for one month reached a monthly high, reflecting widespread market anxiety [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced even worse conditions, with Bitcoin dropping to around $83,000, a 35% decline from its historical peak of $126,000 [1] - Bitcoin's price fell 18% last week, marking the strongest weekly decline since mid-November 2022 [1] - November is expected to record the worst monthly performance since the market correction in June 2022 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The October meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve revealed intense internal debates regarding the possibility of a rate cut in December [2] - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data for September complicated the outlook, with futures traders raising the probability of a December rate cut to over 70%, nearly doubling from below 40% after the non-farm data [2] - The cancellation of the October employment report and the delay of the October CPI report may impact the Fed's decision-making process ahead of the December meeting [2] AI Stock Concerns - Recent market declines were partly driven by concerns over high valuations of AI stocks, leading to skepticism about AI investment returns [2] - Nvidia's strong earnings report, which exceeded market expectations for Q3 revenue and Q4 sales, initially boosted market sentiment [2] - However, the market experienced a severe intraday reversal, resulting in over $2.7 trillion in market value evaporating, with the VIX volatility index rising above 26 for the first time since April [2] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week is crucial for U.S. economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with key reports expected in the first three days [3] - Market attention is focused on the September Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence index, as well as initial jobless claims data on Wednesday [3] - The significance of the weekly initial jobless claims data is heightened due to the absence of a complete October non-farm employment report [3]