What's the Chance of 3% Mortgage Rates Returning?

Group 1 - The U.S. housing market is currently facing challenges, particularly regarding mortgage rates and their impact on recovery prospects [1] - It is unlikely that mortgage rates will return to 3% in the near future, as current market conditions suggest higher long-term rates [2][5] - The 10-year Treasury yield would need to decrease to approximately 1.5% for 30-year mortgages to return to 3%, which is not expected soon [3] Group 2 - The market is pricing in long-term inflation at 2.27%, indicating that achieving lower mortgage rates is challenging [4][5] - Current low-rate mortgages are creating a "locked-in" effect, where homeowners are hesitant to sell due to the prospect of higher rates [8] - Housing affordability remains a significant issue, particularly for first-time buyers, complicating the overall market dynamics [9]