二级市场压力测试推动创新药行业淬炼“真金”

Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in the innovative drug sector is viewed as a pressure test for the industry's core value, potentially driving profound changes across three key dimensions [1] Group 1: Focus on Clinically Valuable Innovations - The current market adjustment is prompting the industry to concentrate on truly clinically valuable innovative drugs, transitioning from imitation and improved drugs to first-in-class innovations [2] - The China Innovation Drug Index has experienced significant fluctuations, with a peak in June 2021 followed by a decline until August 2024, leading companies to reassess their R&D strategies and accelerate the shift towards first-in-class innovations [2] - By the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of external licensing for Chinese innovative drugs is expected to reach $92.03 billion, with projections indicating it will surpass $100 billion for the year, reflecting improved R&D levels and rational choices gaining international market recognition [2] Group 2: Enhancing Commercialization Capabilities - The current market pressures are forcing companies to build comprehensive commercialization systems, addressing the long-standing issue of focusing heavily on R&D while neglecting commercialization [3] - Companies are now required to develop capabilities across the entire value chain, from drug approval to market access and academic promotion, influencing R&D decisions to ensure sustainable commercial returns [3] Group 3: Valuation Rationalization in the Innovative Drug Sector - Investment is increasingly flowing towards innovative drug assets that demonstrate clear clinical value and address unmet medical needs, as well as companies with defined commercialization paths and global strategies [4] - The evaluation criteria for external licensing transactions have shifted from focusing on upfront payments and total transaction amounts to assessing the potential for sustained value creation and stable cash flow from product pipelines [4] - The innovative drug development process is characterized as a long-term endeavor, typically requiring 10 to 15 years and substantial financial investment, emphasizing the need for a long-term investment perspective in the face of market fluctuations [4]