Did Bitcoin Just Bottom Out? What the Data Says About a Rebound

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant selling pressure, dropping to the $85,000 zone, but signs of capitulation among holders suggest a potential market bottom is forming [1][6] - The market is witnessing a shift in risk expectations, with traders increasingly seeking downside protection through put options, indicating a bearish sentiment [2][3] - Realized losses among Bitcoin holders have surged, particularly among short-term holders, reflecting panic selling and indicating that marginal demand has been exhausted [4][5] Price Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,979, maintaining support above $85,204, with a psychological floor at $85,000 [6] - If the market confirms a bottom, Bitcoin could potentially rally past the $86,822 resistance, aiming for targets of $89,800 and $91,521, with a longer-term goal of $95,000 [7] - Conversely, if bearish pressure continues and macro conditions do not improve, Bitcoin may fall below $85,204, with a risk of dropping to $80,000, which would invalidate the bullish outlook [8]