南方基金郑晓曦： 半导体设备处于高速成长中早期 未来三年或进入右侧收获期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with the semiconductor equipment index rising by 57.28% this year [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed the initial breakthrough and is entering a high-speed growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, supported by domestic expansion of wafer fabs and increasing demand for mid-to-high-end equipment [4] - The dual benefits of self-controllable policies and AI-driven applications are expected to sustain the semiconductor equipment sector's prosperity over the next three years [5] Group 3: Sector Preferences - There is a clear preference for the advanced packaging sector, which is becoming crucial for enhancing chip performance due to the slowdown of Moore's Law [5] - The increase in domestic production rates and the demand driven by AI are seen as key long-term growth factors for the semiconductor industry [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies that successfully position themselves within the AI industry chain are expected to gain significant competitive advantages and open up larger development spaces [6] - Caution is advised for stocks that rely heavily on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM market, where prices have more than doubled compared to last year [7]