Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant decrease in prices and a mixed outlook on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1170 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.80% [1] - The weekly trading range saw prices open at 1224 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1236 CNY/ton and a low of 1156 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6444 million tons as of November 20, 2025, a decrease of 62,900 tons (3.68%) from the previous week [2] - Light soda ash inventory stood at 757,100 tons, down by 43,100 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 19,800 tons to 887,300 tons [2] - Year-on-year, total inventory has slightly decreased by 370 tons (0.23%) compared to 1.6481 million tons last year [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 973,600 long positions and 1,229,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.79 and a net position of -255,800 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment [2] - In the South China region, the average price for light soda ash was 1350 CNY/ton and for heavy soda ash was 1400 CNY/ton, with similar prices reported in Northeast China [2] Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted a dual reduction in supply and demand, with high factory inventories declining and production slightly decreasing due to maintenance [3] - The demand for soda ash is being negatively impacted by falling glass prices, leading to a weak market sentiment [3] - Wukuang Futures highlighted that the soda ash market lacks clear directional guidance, with expectations of continued low-price fluctuations [3]
基本面供需双减 预计纯碱仍将延续低位震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-23 23:27