短期供需驱动中性 沥青期货或维持震荡偏弱走势

Group 1 - The main contract for asphalt futures closed at 3009 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63% and a reduction in open interest by 26,713 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of November 17-21, the domestic asphalt shipment volume from 54 enterprises totaled 362,000 tons, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the previous week [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, down 4.7% from before the holiday and down 2.5% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Weather conditions, including rain and snow in Northwest, Northeast, and Northern China, have severely impacted road asphalt demand, leading to a seasonal decline in rigid demand as temperatures drop below freezing [2] - Social inventory of asphalt from 70 sample enterprises was 794,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared to the previous week, with Shandong's social inventory at 259,000 tons, down 39,000 tons [2] - According to Baocan Futures, the supply side of asphalt is contracting due to declining profits, while demand is constrained by financial and weather factors, indicating a weak overall recovery momentum [3] Group 3 - Yide Futures noted that while refinery inventory is increasing and social inventory is decreasing, the short-term supply-demand dynamics are neutral [3] - In the medium term, asphalt supply in November is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with refinery inventory likely to accumulate and social inventory decreasing [3] - The market is advised to pay attention to crude oil price trends as the recent dilution of asphalt price spreads indicates potential pricing strategies for winter storage [3]