南方基金郑晓曦：半导体设备处于高速成长中早期 未来三年或进入右侧收获期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high growth cycle driven by domestic controllability policies and AI technology, with a year-to-date index increase of 57.28% [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed its initial breakthrough and is entering a high growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Semiconductor Equipment Sector Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of a high growth cycle, supported by domestic policies and increasing demand from wafer fabs for mid-to-high-end equipment [4] - The dual drivers of domestic controllability policies and AI applications are expected to sustain the growth of the semiconductor equipment sector over the next three years [5] Investment Opportunities - The increase in domestic production rates and AI-driven demand are seen as key sources of excess returns, with companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain expected to have significant growth potential [6] - The advanced packaging sector is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law [5][6] Market Dynamics - The storage chip sector is anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to expansion, with expectations for acceleration in mid to late 2026 [6] - Caution is advised for stocks heavily reliant on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM market, where prices have more than doubled since last year [7]