【广发证券“投研财富+” 投资者教育专栏】现制茶饮：供需共振、长坡厚雪的新消费赛道

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of ready-to-drink tea has simplified the traditional tea preparation process, appealing particularly to younger consumers and leading to significant industry growth and structural upgrades [1] Supply Side Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea industry is transitioning from powdered to fresh, healthy products, with high-quality raw materials becoming increasingly common [2] - Major tea brands are focusing on supply chain improvements, allowing for quality upgrades at relatively affordable prices, with over 85% of new products priced below 20 yuan in 2024 [2] - The number of ready-to-drink tea stores in China is projected to increase from 293,000 in 2019 to 448,000 by 2024, enhancing accessibility and driving consumption frequency [2] Demand Side Analysis - Consumer preferences are shifting from basic functional needs to higher-level demands such as emotional value, health, and social interaction [3] - Ready-to-drink tea has become an integral part of daily life, with significant social attributes driving consumption in various scenarios [3] - Young consumers, particularly those under 30, represent a substantial portion of the market, with 42% of consumers aged under 20 and 29% aged 20-30 [3] Long-term Outlook - There is significant growth potential for the penetration rate of ready-to-drink tea, with current per capita consumption in mainland China at 11 cups compared to over 50 cups in Hong Kong and Taiwan [4] - The industry is experiencing increasing chain rates and concentration, with the chain rate reaching 56.1% in 2023, up 17.1 percentage points since 2018 [4] Short-term Considerations - The ongoing subsidy battle in the delivery market is expected to support high growth in same-store sales, particularly benefiting the ready-to-drink tea category [5] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth post-subsidy, as well as the potential impact of consumer price sensitivity on original-priced products [6] - The focus will shift back to fundamental business practices as subsidies decrease, with supply chain efficiency and refined operations becoming critical for success [6]