Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-11-24 01:29Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicates strong market confidence in the future performance of this sector [1][4]. Investment Trends - On November 21, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) attracted 73.7 million yuan in a single day, with a total of 205 million yuan accumulated over the past 10 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - As of November 21, the ETF's latest scale reached 677 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the recent attack on Moscow, is expected to impact the supply of key metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper, potentially driving prices higher due to supply chain disruptions and increased sanctions against Russian metals [3]. - The conflict is also likely to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and copper, as investors seek to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]. - Increased strategic reserve demands for metals used in defense applications, such as antimony, are anticipated due to the ongoing military tensions [3]. Macroeconomic Influences - Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve's New York Bank President, indicating potential for further interest rate cuts, have heightened expectations for a 70% probability of a rate cut in December [3][4]. - Analysts believe that even if the Fed pauses a rate cut, the ongoing expectation of future cuts will continue to support non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with various analysts highlighting three main investment themes: constrained supply and recovering demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, explosive demand for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets such as gold and rare earths [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6].