半导体设备处于高速成长中早期 未来三年或进入右侧收获期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with the semiconductor equipment index rising by 57.28% this year [3]. Investment Strategy - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [4][5]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is entering a high growth phase, transitioning from 0 to 1 to 1 to 10, making it an ideal investment opportunity [4]. Market Dynamics - The core logic of the self-controllable direction is the increase in domestic production rates combined with demand-driven long-term high growth [6]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials manufacturers are benefiting from the continuous expansion of downstream wafer fabs, providing significant growth space [6]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is currently in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, supported by both domestic policies and increasing demand for high-end equipment from wafer fabs [6]. Emerging Opportunities - Advanced packaging is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law, with AI driving related demand [7]. - The investment landscape is characterized by a historic opportunity driven by domestic substitution and AI, with domestic self-controllable processes deepening and being less affected by global economic cycles [8]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant improvements in penetration and domestic production rates over the next three years, maintaining high growth rates [6]. - Companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain are anticipated to gain global competitiveness, opening up larger development spaces [8]. - Caution is advised regarding stocks that rely heavily on price rebounds, particularly in the storage chip sector, where significant price increases have already occurred [9].