强势美元成“黄金克星” 伦敦金短期反弹乏力

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strengthening US dollar and changing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of November 24, gold is trading at $4,065.63 per ounce, down $9.33 or 0.23%, continuing a slight downward trend from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index's upward movement is a key factor suppressing gold prices in the short term, with the USD/CNY exchange rate fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11 [2]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a cooling expectation for the Fed's easing policies, which diminishes gold's support as an inflation hedge [2]. Group 2: Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - In the context of a global sell-off of risk assets, gold's safe-haven characteristics have not been fully realized, as evidenced by significant declines in other assets like Bitcoin and crude oil [2]. - During the market adjustment triggered by the US stock market's drop on November 21, gold prices fell by 0.4%, reflecting a shift in safe-haven demand towards dollar-denominated assets [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On a four-hour chart, gold prices have found support near the annual average line, indicating a potential stabilization as buying pressure emerges at critical levels [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, suggesting a possible slowdown in the downward trend and a chance for price recovery in the short term [3]. - On an hourly chart, gold has faced resistance at the upper channel line of $4,087, with recent trading occurring in a narrow range between $4,030 and $4,070, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [3].