资金面扰动渐消 机构指明港股三大确定性布局方向

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reaching new highs in October, followed by a notable correction due to various factors including tightening dollar liquidity and concerns over AI valuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October, the Hang Seng Index had a maximum increase of 47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index had a maximum increase of 61% for the year. However, since mid-October, these indices have seen a maximum pullback of 8% and 20% respectively [1][3]. - The cumulative year-to-date gains for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have narrowed to 27.78% and 23.66% respectively [3]. Factors Behind Market Adjustment - The market correction is attributed to multiple factors: tightening dollar liquidity, a significant drop in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a technical need for market pullbacks after substantial prior gains [3][4]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity was exacerbated by a government shutdown in the U.S., which led to a temporary halt in government spending and increased dollar liquidity pressure [3][13]. Historical Context of Market Adjustments - Historical data indicates that in bull markets, small pullbacks average a maximum decline of about 7%, while larger pullbacks average around 17%, often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - The average duration of small pullbacks in bull markets is typically less than 30 trading days, while larger pullbacks can last around 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current adjustments, the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue, supported by ongoing AI trends and the influx of quality assets [2][13]. - The potential for continued inflow of southbound capital is strong, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year, indicating a favorable outlook for the Hong Kong market [14]. - The technology sector, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements, is anticipated to remain a key driver of market performance moving forward [14].