地缘风险与联储分歧拉锯 金价陷三角收敛待破局

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics for gold are influenced by geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a bearish short-term outlook for gold prices [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 24, gold is trading around $4046.91 per ounce, with a decline of 0.46% and a trading range between $4076.69 and $4042.45 [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are largely driven by market reactions to U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing Ukraine conflict [2][4]. - The market is currently showing a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines unless key resistance levels are breached [5]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Influence - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams, who adopted a dovish stance, have significantly shifted market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from below 30% to over 50%, nearing 70% [2][3]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some officials advocating for a pause on rate cuts while others support them, adding to market uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment and investment decisions [4]. - Developments in Japan and the changing dynamics between the U.S. and Venezuela are also highlighted as significant influences on the global economic and political landscape [4].