美联储与加央行主导汇率

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the USD/CAD exchange rate's slight decline due to the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, alongside fluctuations in international oil prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's officials show mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts, with a 71% probability of a rate cut in December according to CME data, while the Bank of Canada maintains its rate at 5% and emphasizes that inflation has not yet reached its target [1] - The 10-year yield spread between the US and Canada has narrowed to 0.35%, indicating a weakening support for the Canadian dollar, with upcoming US and Canadian inflation data expected to be pivotal [1] Group 2 - International oil prices are fluctuating between $77 and $78 per barrel, with doubts about OPEC+ production cuts putting pressure on oil prices, which in turn affects the commodity-linked Canadian dollar [1] - Canada's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, demonstrating economic resilience that supports the Bank of Canada's policy stance, although weak oil prices limit the Canadian dollar's rebound potential [1] - The technical analysis indicates a narrow trading range for the USD/CAD around 1.4094, with key support at 1.4087 and resistance between 1.4105 and 1.4110, suggesting a cautious trading strategy based on oil price movements [3]